Zelensky caved and Putin may be holding the bag?

Trump pivots hard on his weathervane

Well, THIS is interesting and more.

Contra Secretary of State Marco Rubio indicating last week that Trump might exit Russia-Ukraine peace talks entirely?

He and Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky have signed that Ukrainian minerals deal that Zelensky stridently opposed as part of his White House appearance about two months ago, ABC reports.

“This agreement signals clearly to Russia that the Trump Administration is committed to a peace process centered on a free, sovereign, and prosperous Ukraine over the long term," Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said in a press release. "President Trump envisioned this partnership between the American people and the Ukrainian people to show both sides’ commitment to lasting peace and prosperity in Ukraine. And to be clear, no state or person who financed or supplied the Russian war machine will be allowed to benefit from the reconstruction of Ukraine.”

Actually, what it signals is that, despite Ukrainian denialism, Kursk, as well as the Black Sea coast, were looking more and more problematic for weeks and months ahead in the war.

That’s because, last week, Reuters had an in-depth, interactive piece on how much help, originally in material, then also in manpower, North Korea has been giving Russia. And, its improvement.

On that? This, from the Reuters:

By January, around 4,000 North Korean soldiers had been killed or wounded fighting against Ukrainian forces since they first arrived in Kursk in late autumn, according to a South Korean security source. North Korea sent 3,000 more men by mid-February – and the reinforcements were better prepared, said Oleh Shyriaiev, commander of Ukraine’s 225th Separate Assault Regiment, which has been fighting in Kursk.

“They adapted to modern combat conditions,” Shyriaiev recalled.

So, North Koreans are now no longer cannon fodder. And, neither are Russian troops, as missiles and artillery become the preferred weapons in the area around Kursk.

And, based on battlefield feedback, the North Korean troops have improved. And, based on broader battlefield feedback and Russian information feedback, the North Korean missiles have improved — invaluable to its president, Kim Jong Un. If that's not more incentive for the US to push for an end to the war, and for Japan and South Korea to join that push, I don't know what is.

Second, for Uki-tankies talking about how relatively cheap Ukrainian missiles can take down Russian planes? North Korean weapons are far cheaper and can take down NATO-supplied Ukrainian planes!

Back to the deal. There are still timing glitches, per the ABC link:

Both sides were ready to sign the agreement on critical minerals and other resources earlier but the U.S. said it wanted the main minerals resources agreement signed and the creation of an investment fund document signed at the same time, Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal and a source in the Ukrainian president's office said.

Ukraine had planned to separate the signing dates, as the creation of the fund agreement was still being finalized, the source added.

"Now they'll be rushing to finish it," the source said.

Ukraine said it was ready to sign but ran into a last-minute snag when the U.S. requested it sign both the mineral resources agreement and the investment fund agreement at the same time, a Ukrainian official told ABC News. The U.S. refuted that series of events in comments during President Donald Trump’s Cabinet meeting Wednesday, saying it was "ready to sign" the agreement but the Ukrainians decided on Tuesday night to "make some last-minute changes," Bessent said.

"Our side is ready to sign," Bessent said.

When asked what was changed, Bessent said there have been "no changes on our side."

Trump then put the mineral resources agreement into "context," talking about the amount of money the U.S. has given to Ukraine's war effort. But he seemed optimistic about the prospect of the agreement coming together.

"But we haven't really seen the fruits of that deal yet. I suspect we will," Trump said.

So, maybe this won’t actually get pulled off after all.

The Beeb has more. Per ABC, it notes that the US has officially signed the deal, but Ukraine has not.

Also, per the Beeb? What sort of mess of pottage will Zelensky get from Trump on security issues (ie, weapons and deals) in exchange for signing away his country’s birthright?

While it did not specify security support that Washington would be willing to provide in return, it stated that the deal was "a tangible demonstration of the United States of America's support for Ukraine's security".

Well, if Zelensky signed off for that? He must have been desperate indeed.

That said, given how much Ukrainian economy minister Yulia Svyrydenko discusses the deal in this piece, it sure sounds like any potential signing-timing hangups are purely technical. And, it sounds like the Zelensky cabinet is singing from the same hymnal.

On the other side of the line, John Helmer claimed today that polls show Russian public support for Putin is still strong. Given the time difference, I’m sure that the piece was written before this announcement. We shall see how much Putin backs off some of his maximalist demands in days ahead.

The Times of Israel’s report on the deal doesn’t sound good for Putin, either:

The Treasury statement notably mentions Russia’s “full-scale invasion” of Ukraine — diverging from the Trump administration’s usual formulation of a “conflict” for which Kyiv bears a large degree of responsibility.

In Kyiv, Prime Minister Denys Shmygal says on national television that the agreement was “good, equal and beneficial.”

In a post on Telegram, Shmygal says that the two countries would establish a Reconstruction Investment Fund with each side having 50 percent voting rights.

“Ukraine retains full control over its subsoil, infrastructure and natural resources,” he says.

Meeting a key concern for Kyiv, he says Ukraine will not be asked to pay back any “debt” for the billions of dollars in US weapons and other support since Russia invaded in February 2022.

“The fund’s profits will be reinvested exclusively in Ukraine,” he says.

Note above all the first paragraph.

I’ve said before that Trump’s approach to foreign policy in general is purely transactional. Don’t be surprised if family, friends and Musk-ovites (I see what I did there) start incorporating rare earth mining companies soon. (All being funded in DOGE-coin, of course.)